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In a surprising turn of events, users on the cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket are placing their bets on President Joe Biden potentially issuing pardons for high-profile figures in the crypto world. As of January 9, 2023, the odds suggest that users believe Biden is more likely to pardon former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried than Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht.
Key Takeaways
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Polymarket users give a 4% chance of Biden pardoning Sam Bankman-Fried and a 2% chance for Ross Ulbricht.
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Bankman-Fried is currently serving a 25-year sentence for fraud, while Ulbricht is serving a life sentence.
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Biden has the authority to issue pardons before leaving office on January 20.
The former FTX CEO, Sam Bankman-Fried, was convicted in 2023 on seven felony counts related to fraud at the cryptocurrency exchange and is currently appealing his 25-year sentence. In contrast, Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the Silk Road darknet marketplace, was sentenced to life imprisonment in 2015 without the possibility of parole for his role in operating the illicit platform.
As the clock ticks down to Biden's departure from office, the crypto community is watching closely. Users on Polymarket have wagered over $5 million on Bankman-Fried's chances of receiving a pardon, while Ulbricht's odds have attracted $1.2 million in bets.
Bets on US President Joe Biden issuing pardons. Source: Polymarket
Biden's Pardoning Power
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Biden has previously commuted the sentences of over 1,500 individuals who were placed on home confinement during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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He also controversially pardoned his son, Hunter Biden, who faced felony charges related to firearm purchases.
With only a few days left in his term, it remains uncertain whether Biden will issue any further pardons. However, he retains the authority to grant clemency to either Ulbricht or Bankman-Fried, or potentially both.
Political Context
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Former President Donald Trump made commuting Ulbricht’s sentence a key promise to the crypto community during his campaign, but he did not follow through during his presidency.
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Neither Biden nor Trump has indicated any intention to pardon Bankman-Fried, who has faced bipartisan criticism for his actions leading to the collapse of FTX.
Interestingly, reports have surfaced suggesting that Trump’s advisers are advocating for a pardon for Edward Snowden, the former NSA contractor who has been living in exile in Russia since 2013.