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Geopolitical Tensions Threaten Bitcoin's Short-Term Stability
Market analyst Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau, has issued a stark warning regarding Bitcoin's (BTC) short-term price trajectory. He suggests that while BTC has shown resilience despite recent geopolitical events, a significant correction could occur if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping route. Such a move would impact all risk-on assets, with crypto markets, operating 24/7, being particularly vulnerable over a weekend.
The Strait of Hormuz: A Critical Chokepoint
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The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway through which approximately 20% of the world's oil supply passes.
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Its closure would lead to a massive spike in oil prices and a sharp decline in risk assets.
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Puckrin emphasizes that the immediate future of Bitcoin's price hinges on the developments in the Israel-Iran conflict over the coming days.
Long-Term Outlook Versus Short-Term Volatility
Despite the immediate geopolitical concerns, Puckrin maintains a more optimistic long-term outlook for Bitcoin. He posits that Bitcoin's long-term price is less influenced by geopolitical events and more by the declining value of the US dollar, which recently hit a three-year low. This suggests potential long-term upside for the supply-capped cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin's Evolving Role as an Asset
Bitcoin continues to be a subject of intense scrutiny from both retail and institutional investors. Its classification remains fluid, straddling the line between a risk-on asset and a store of value as it matures within the financial landscape.
Long-Term Holders Accumulating Amid Uncertainty
Adding another layer to the market dynamics, CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci highlights that long-term Bitcoin holders are continuing to accumulate BTC despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and heightened geopolitical tensions. Accumulation addresses, defined as wallets that have never sold a single Satoshi and have been active for the past seven years, recorded a significant inflow of 30,784 BTC (approximately $3.3 billion) on June 11, marking the highest daily inflow for 2025. This surge brought the total BTC held by these addresses to 2.91 million BTC, with an average entry price of around $64,000.
Sources
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Bitcoin Will Fall This Weekend If Iran Closes Strait Of Hormuz, Cointelegraph.
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Closing Strait of Hormuz is biggest risk to BTC price this weekend — Analyst — TradingView News, TradingView.
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