A prominent crypto analyst, Rekt Capital, predicts the current Bitcoin bull run could conclude within the next 2-3 months, with approximately 88% of its upward trajectory already completed. This forecast is based on historical halving cycles, suggesting a potential peak around October 2025.
Key Takeaways
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The Bitcoin bull run is still active but progressing at a slower pace than previous cycles.
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The current cycle experienced the longest post-halving reaccumulation phase to date.
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While further upside to $130,000-$150,000 is possible, the risk of a significant correction (60-70%) is increasing.
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The analyst suggests only 2-3 months of significant upside remain, with a potential peak in October 2025.
Historical Patterns and Current Cycle
Rekt Capital emphasizes that Bitcoin bull markets typically follow predictable patterns, often peaking around 550 days after a halving event. If this historical trend holds true, the current cycle, which saw its halving in April 2024, could reach its zenith by October 2025. This implies that the majority of the gains for this cycle have already been realized.
Notably, this cycle has been characterized by a prolonged reaccumulation phase post-halving, lasting nearly eight months. This extended consolidation period allowed the market to cool down after rapid gains, leading to a slower, more deliberate ascent to new highs compared to past cycles.
Upside Potential Versus Downside Risk
While Bitcoin could still see price increases, potentially reaching $130,000, $140,000, or even $150,000, the analyst warns that the risk of a market downturn is beginning to outweigh the remaining upside. A significant correction of 60-70% is a possibility after the peak.
Short-Term Outlook
In the immediate future, Bitcoin has recently established a new local high and is maintaining its position above a crucial trendline. As long as the price remains above $105,200, the bullish sentiment is expected to persist. A break above $113,500 could pave the way for a move towards $130,000. Despite the potential for minor pullbacks, the overall trend remains positive, with higher prices anticipated in the coming weeks, provided the $107,280 support level holds.
Sources
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88% of Bitcoin’s Bull Run Is Over: Here’s What Comes Next, Coin Edition.
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Bitcoin Bull Market May End After October: Analyst, Cointelegraph.
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