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Bitcoin's upward momentum is gaining traction, with experts predicting a potential surge to new all-time highs within the next two weeks. This optimistic outlook follows a recent interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, which has revitalized the cryptocurrency's trajectory after a period of consolidation.
Key Takeaways
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Analysts suggest a 70% probability of Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs within two weeks.
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Bullish indicators include BTC futures trading at a premium and a positive basis.
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The cryptocurrency's performance is showing correlation with the strong uptrend in US stocks.
Bullish Indicators Signal Potential Surge
Market expert Axel Adler has identified several key indicators pointing towards a bullish future for Bitcoin. He noted on social media platform X that Bitcoin futures are currently trading at a premium compared to spot prices, a sign of positive market sentiment. Furthermore, the seven-day basis is outperforming the thirty-day average, indicating a strengthening bullish market regime.
Adler's analysis suggests a base case probability of approximately 70% for a continued upward trend or sideways movement over the next fortnight. He highlighted that a confluence of positive signals, such as rising prices, an increasing basis, and growing open interest, could attract new long positions and significantly increase the likelihood of Bitcoin achieving a new all-time high.
Moreover, the Short-Term Holder (STH) Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-scores for both 155-day and 365-day periods are currently near zero. This suggests a balanced market, avoiding states of overheating or overselling. With Bitcoin's price trading just above its Short-Term Realized Price, Adler believes the conditions are ripe for a potential consolidation phase in the coming week or two, potentially followed by a significant rally towards new record highs. He has dubbed this anticipated period an "uptober" for Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market.
Correlation with US Stock Market Performance
Adding to the positive sentiment, Bitcoin's price action is showing a strong correlation with the recent performance of US stocks, which have experienced a significant uptrend over the past two weeks. Analysts at The Bull Theory have observed that Bitcoin tends to rise in tandem with new highs in US equities.
Historical data supports this observation. Following an all-time high in the S&P 500, Bitcoin has historically seen an average increase of 12% over 30 days and a substantial 36% over 90 days. If similar patterns repeat, Bitcoin could reach $131,000 and potentially $178,000 from its current trading levels. Similarly, after a Nasdaq all-time high, Bitcoin has historically gained an average of 16% in 30 days and 46% in 90 days. This could position Bitcoin at $136,000 or even $199,000, based on current trading prices around $117,770.
Sources
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