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Cryptocurrency market analysts are closely watching Bitcoin's price action, with some predicting a potential "final flush" towards the $104,000 mark before the anticipated bull market resumes. This potential downturn is seen by some as a healthy correction driven by profit-taking and macroeconomic uncertainties, while underlying fundamentals remain strong.
Key Takeaways
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Analysts suggest Bitcoin might experience a final dip to around $104,000.
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This potential correction is viewed as a precursor to the resumption of the bull market.
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The 50-week simple moving average (SMA) around $102,500 is identified as a key support level.
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Market sentiment has been bearish, mirroring previous correction phases.
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Macroeconomic factors like US-China trade tensions and the US government shutdown are influencing market sentiment.
Technical Indicators Point to a Potential Dip
Several analysts are pointing to historical patterns and technical indicators as evidence for a potential short-term decline. The 50-week simple moving average (SMA), currently around $102,500, has historically served as strong support. Analysts believe Bitcoin may revisit this level, potentially dipping to $104,000, to clear out leverage and liquidity clusters before a significant upward move.
Analyst "Sykodelic" noted the presence of a large liquidity cluster around $104,000, suggesting it's likely to be "taken out." This sentiment echoes previous market cycles where Bitcoin experienced sharp corrections before reversing strongly. For instance, similar dips occurred in April 2025 (to $74,000) and August 2024 (to $49,000), both followed by substantial rallies.
Final Phases of Correction
Other market observers, like "Negentropic," agree that the market is in the "final phases of correction." They suggest that while profit-taking is occurring, it appears less intensive than in previous instances. This setup could lead to Bitcoin testing the $102,000 level, signaling an imminent larger reversal.
Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, commented that while Bitcoin might retrace to $104,000 as part of a healthy correction, the robust underlying fundamentals and institutional interest are setting the stage for a strong bull market resumption.
Macroeconomic Headwinds and Market Sentiment
Recent market movements have been influenced by external factors. Renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and China, along with the ongoing US government shutdown, have weighed on investor sentiment, pushing Bitcoin below $105,000. These macro headwinds have caused a shift towards risk-off sentiment, impacting riskier assets like Bitcoin.
Despite these pressures, reports suggest that the coming weeks could offer a favorable accumulation window. The deleveraging events and normalization of funding dynamics in perpetual markets are seen as healthy resets, reducing the risk of further liquidations and paving the way for a more sustainable recovery.
Bitcoin's Current Standing
Bitcoin has been trading around the $108,000 level, which has become a key support-turned-resistance zone. While it briefly spiked higher, it has since consolidated. Technical indicators, such as a bearish RSI and MACD crossover, suggest continued bearish momentum in the short term. However, a sustained recovery will likely depend on macroeconomic stability and renewed institutional demand, particularly through Bitcoin ETFs.
Sources
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Bitcoin may 'final flush' to $104K before the bull market returns, mx.advfn.com.
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Bitcoin May Fall To $104K Before Bull Market Resumes, Cointelegraph.
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Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC slips below $105,000 as macro headwinds weigh on sentiment, Mitrade.
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