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Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 is showing a striking resemblance to its performance during the 2022 bear market, with a near 98% correlation on monthly timeframes. Despite this concerning trend, there are signs of institutional capital returning to the crypto market, evidenced by substantial inflows into Bitcoin and Ether ETFs.
Key Takeaways
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Bitcoin's current price trajectory closely mirrors its 2022 bear market, with a 98% monthly correlation.
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November has historically been a challenging month for Bitcoin, and 2025 has been no exception.
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Despite the bearish correlation, US spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs have attracted significant new capital.
Bitcoin's Eerie 2022 Echo
Network economist Timothy Peterson has highlighted that Bitcoin (BTC) is tracking the 2022 bear market with concerning accuracy. On a daily basis, the correlation between the current period and 2022 stands at 80%, escalating to a full 98% on monthly charts. This suggests that a significant price comeback for Bitcoin might not occur until well into the first quarter of next year, if historical patterns hold true.
Peterson's analysis indicates that "it feels bad because it is bad," referring to Bitcoin's performance. November, in particular, ranks among the worst months on record for BTC price action, falling within the bottom 10% of daily price paths observed since 2015. Historically, a "red" November for Bitcoin has often led to a similar, though less severe, outcome in December.
Institutional Capital Returns to Crypto ETFs
Amidst the concerning price correlations, there are emerging signs of a potential "Santa rally" driven by a shift in macro sentiment and a return of institutional capital. While the broader crypto market suffered more than stocks during recent drawdowns, inflows into US equities have been exceptionally strong, attracting $900 billion since November 2024. Equities have seen more inflows than all other asset classes combined.
More importantly for the crypto space, US spot Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are showing renewed investor interest. Bitcoin ETFs concluded Thanksgiving week with $220 million in inflows, while Ether ETFs attracted $312 million. This suggests that the worst of the institutional sell-off in crypto may be subsiding, offering a glimmer of hope for the market.
Sources
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Bitcoin Has Acted Almost Identical to 2022 Over the Past Six Months, cointelegraph.com.
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