Recent Aave governance disputes created a buying opportunity for "smart money," leading large holders to accumulate a significant portion of the token supply. Despite a 20% price drop to $143, which erased over $500 million from Aave's market cap, top addresses have increased their holdings, signaling confidence in the DeFi platform's future.
Key Takeaways
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Large Aave holders (Top 100 Addresses) increased their holdings by approximately 8% of the total supply during a recent sell-off.
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The number of whale wallets (over $1 million in holdings) surged by 66% in December.
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Selling pressure on exchanges has notably declined.
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A potential price target of $210-$220 exists if key resistance levels are overcome.
Whale Accumulation Amidst Volatility
The Aave governance drama presented a prime opportunity for "smart money" to increase their exposure to the decentralized finance (DeFi) platform at a reduced price. During the period of turmoil, which saw AAVE's price plummet by 20% to a low of $143 and wipe out over $500 million in market capitalization, the Top 100 Aave Addresses significantly boosted their holdings. These addresses collectively acquired approximately 8% of the total AAVE supply, bringing their total control to 80% of the overall supply.
Furthermore, data indicates a substantial increase in whale activity. Between early and late December, the number of whale wallets, defined as those holding over $1 million, saw a 66% surge, growing from 120,000 to 200,000. This highlights robust demand from large investors while retail investors reportedly retreated during the governance dispute.
Declining Selling Pressure
Compounding the whale accumulation, selling pressure on cryptocurrency exchanges has also seen a significant decrease. Santiment data revealed that during the peak of the Aave Labs-DAO conflict and the associated Christmas week voting period, the supply of AAVE tokens on exchanges rose from 1.22 million to 1.43 million coins. This surge in exchange supply coincided with the sharp price decline from $182 to $143.
However, at the time of reporting, this selling pressure has eased, with the supply on exchanges decreasing to 1.31 million AAVE. This easing of selling pressure followed assurances from Aave Labs and its founder, Stani Kulechov, regarding the sharing of non-protocol revenue with tokenholders. While tensions have de-escalated, the situation remains fluid until a binding agreement is finalized between the involved parties.
Potential Price Trajectory
On the price charts, AAVE bulls are making efforts to reclaim the 50-day Moving Average, currently around $174, for the second time since December. A successful retest and hold of this level would signal a bullish shift in market structure and could pave the way for a sustainable recovery. Consolidation between $160 and $174 might allow bulls to gather strength for another attempt at this crucial resistance.
Should AAVE successfully break above the $174 mark, a potential upside of 30% could see the price target $210 to $220. Conversely, a failure to hold the $160 support level would invalidate the bullish outlook and could lead to a further decline, potentially back towards the $140 region.
In conclusion, AAVE is experiencing significant interest from large holders and smart money, coupled with a reduction in selling pressure. The token's recovery hinges on maintaining the $160 support level.
Sources
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