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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes anticipates Bitcoin will regain its upward momentum and reach new all-time highs, despite its underperformance against gold and the Nasdaq in the previous year. Hayes attributes this expected resurgence to a projected expansion in dollar liquidity, particularly in 2026.
Key Takeaways
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Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin will achieve new all-time highs, driven by an expansion in dollar liquidity.
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He forecasts this liquidity expansion to occur in 2026, fueled by factors like Federal Reserve balance sheet growth and falling mortgage rates.
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Hayes explains Bitcoin's 2025 underperformance relative to gold and the Nasdaq by the unique influence of AI on tech stocks.
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He emphasizes Bitcoin's nature as "monetary technology" and its dependence on fiat monetary debasement for value appreciation.
The Road to Recovery for Bitcoin
Hayes stated that for Bitcoin to recapture its "groove," dollar liquidity must expand. He is optimistic this will happen in 2026, pointing to several potential catalysts. These include the Federal Reserve increasing its balance sheet through "money printing," a decrease in mortgage rates as liquidity loosens, and commercial banks becoming more amenable to lending to US government-backed strategic industries.
Geopolitical Influences and AI's Role
Hayes also touched upon geopolitical factors, suggesting the US will continue its military spending, which will be financed by the commercial banking system. This monetary expansion is generally seen as bullish for cryptocurrencies, as investors often seek riskier assets when the US dollar is expected to lose value due to inflation.
He explained Bitcoin's relative underperformance in 2025 compared to the Nasdaq by noting that artificial intelligence (AI) had been "nationalized" by both China and America. Through executive orders and government investment, Hayes argued, free market signals were being altered, directing capital into AI-related ventures regardless of their real return on equity. This led to technology stocks being the top-performing sector in the S&P 500 for 2025, with a 24.6% return, significantly outperforming Bitcoin's 14.40% decline during the same period. Gold, meanwhile, saw a substantial gain of 44.40%.
Bitcoin as Monetary Technology
Hayes reiterated that Bitcoin's value is intrinsically linked to fiat monetary debasement. He described Bitcoin as "monetary technology" and asserted that its value is always greater than zero. However, for Bitcoin to reach significant valuations, such as $100,000, continuous fiat monetary debasement is a necessary condition.
Sources
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Bitcoin ‘groove’ to return despite gold, Nasdaq spotlight: Arthur Hayes — TradingView News, TradingView — Track All Markets.
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Bitcoin ‘groove’ to return despite gold, Nasdaq spotlight: Arthur Hayes, mx.advfn.com.
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