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January has proven to be a turbulent month for Bitcoin (BTC), with the cryptocurrency experiencing renewed downward pressure. Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly following recent tariff announcements, have contributed to a nearly 2.5% drop in BTC's value over the past 24 hours, bringing it to $92,663. Analysts are now highlighting five key indicators suggesting a potential bear market.
Key Takeaways
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A bearish Kumo twist on Bitcoin's weekly Ichimoku Cloud chart.
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BTC struggling to maintain key support levels, including the 365-day moving average.
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Historical drawdown patterns suggest further declines are possible.
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Market cycle indicators point to an ongoing, developing bear phase.
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Increased exchange inflows from major holders indicate potential distribution.
Bearish Kumo Twist Appears on Bitcoin Chart
An analyst has identified a "Kumo twist" on Bitcoin's weekly chart. This technical formation occurs when the leading spans of the Ichimoku Cloud cross, signaling a potential shift in market trend. In Bitcoin's case, this twist is bearish, and historical analysis shows similar shifts have preceded significant drawdowns of 67% to 70%.
Bitcoin Struggles Below Key Barriers
Bitcoin is currently trading below its 365-day moving average, which stands near $101,000. This level acted as a resistance during the 2022 bear market. Furthermore, on a five-day chart, Bitcoin has fallen below the median level of the Gaussian Channel, a sign that has historically marked the beginning of more aggressive bear market phases.
Historical Drawdown Patterns Suggest More Declines
Bitcoin's price history reveals a pattern of substantial declines after market peaks, with drawdowns of over 70% observed after the 2013, 2017, and 2021 highs. The current pullback, however, has been more modest, suggesting that the downturn may still be in its early stages and further decreases are probable.
Market Cycle Indicator Signals Bitcoin Bear Phase Still Developing
Broader market cycle indicators suggest that while bearish conditions began in October 2025, the market has not yet entered an extreme bear phase. This indicates that lower price levels are still a possibility as the cycle progresses.
Exchange Inflows Reveal Distribution by Major Holders
On-chain data indicates a rise in Bitcoin inflows to exchanges, primarily from mid- to large-sized holders. Such increased activity often signals distribution rather than accumulation, as holders prepare for potential selling. This trend, combined with distribution from larger cohorts, suggests the market is entering a more fragile phase.
Sources
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